The Monster Raving Looney Rantings of Dubs

Patterson’s Pick of  Kirsten Gillibrand might not be the smartest pick of 2008, and i have to say that assuming she survives the 2010 Democratic Primary–no sure thing–she is pretty good candidate for election in 2010.  Gilibrand has already been re-elected in a slightly conservative district, and distinguished herself with the occasional vote towards moderation, as well as the support of certain conservative interest groups.  In her time as a Congresswoman she has built an interesting voting record that ensures a broad appeal in both upstate, and NYC.  If you look at her record she’s has virulently defended gun rights–receiving an A rating from the NRA–and also taken a hard line stance on border control, English first gave her an A rating as well.  This mixed with her otherwise liberal voting record, make her a strong candidate in the General Election.

The Senator does, however, have two major problems.  One is, she will face a primary challenge, Andrew Cuomo thought this was his seat, Robert Kennedy Jr. thought this was going to go to his cousin, and Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who is a very liberal Democrat, refused to attend the announcement–and lost her husband to a “crazed gunman,” making Gilibrand’s major centrist credential a personal affront to a popular liberal congresswoman from New York.  With all of this going on she is likely to be facing one, if not numerous, of these three people–Cuomo wanted to be Governor, but well…..Patterson’s numbers are just too damned high.

As a result of this, there is a good chance that Gilibrand is forced to throw away her warchest just to keep the nomination–when the GOP will probably clear the field for Rep. King, or Frmr. Mayor Giulliani.  This would allow whomever, the GOP nominates to fund raise consistently and not spend all of his money in a violent primary.  This would allow the candidate to enter the general election with a full war chest and intact favorables–don’t forget about the possibility of a negative Primary.  But one thing is for sure, this will be an exciting race, and Gilibrand–that epitome of the Democratic Working Class with her New York High Rise and Lobbyist Daddy–will face a tough primary, and be an excellent candidate in the general.

And having said all of that Patterson himself, made some major errors in choosing her. By picking her Patterson has pissed off the Kennedys–really never a good thing to do–the hyper liberals in New York Democratic Politics (believe it or not there are a lot of them), and for good measure the Cuomos–also not a good thing to do!  In addition to all of this, Patterson also stripped the Democrats of a house seat–prior to ’06 this was a GOP seat, and the Democrats do not have a good candidate the special election, meaning that Patterson has also set up a GOP House pick up.  Having said that from a checkers not chess standpoint she wasn’t a bad pick and does stand a good chance of getting elected in 2010!

In this otherwising depressing year for Conservatives in America–we’ve lost everything except the Supreme Court, there is a glimmer of hope in the future for a small win and a lovely act of spite.  In November the Kossaks–hold back your rage at the metion of their name–ran a poll on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and the result you ask……41% wanna throw the Bastard out!!   And before you break out and dance my friend it actually gets better,54% of Nevadans disaprove of the way he does his job!  And as even Kos Admits, the numbers are likely to get worse over the next two years…not better. 

 And, despite our weak feild, former Congressman John Porter has Reid within 6 points, despite having lost re-election in ’08, and having noly represented 1/3 of the state with 21% of Nevadans “not knowing enough to have an opinion of him!”  As a result, Porter has a chance to shape his relationship and image with Nevadans statewide, whereas, Reid is already a known quantity to the entire state.

 Ladies, and germs this is amazing, because it means that a Congressman who got the boot in ’08 has an excellent chance to throw some sand in Democrats’ eyes and shake their eye-teeth in Washington.  So I say let’s do it, let’s get rid of two Majority Leaders in 6 years! 

With Senator Voinovich’s retirement, the Ohio Senate race just got, well bad, very very very bad.  For those of you who don’t know Senator Voinovich, he was the former 3 term Mayor of Cleveland, two Term Governor of Ohio, and Two Term Senator.  He had won four statewide races and been elected by the most liberal part of Ohio–Cuyahoga County–3 times.  To replace him, our biggest names are Mike DeWine, Rob Portman, and State Senator Kevin Coughlin.  Of these two Coughlin, and the quasi-RINO DeWine, are our best shots.  Portman is a walking negative attack add–he was Bush’s OMB.  Mike DeWine would have to want to run–and is probably more interested in governor.  And Coughlin is unfortunately running for Governor–he is probably the best conservative candidate…except for the fact that his fund raising will be insignificant in comparison to Dewine or Portman…and Portman seems to be the “consensus candidate”–that’s a bad consensus.

Our best hope lies in the Democratic field where there are numerous potential and serious candidates, meaning that we could get a very large, very divisive Primary.  Zack Space, Tim Ryan, Betty Sutton, and Lee Fisher will all probably jump get in the mix–hell even Kucinich is considering a bid.  If all of these people jump in, and I would be shocked if Space doesn’t since his district is way too conservative for him. On top of that he cold hold statewide office easier than his CD.  But with Kucinich, Space, and Fisher in this race there is a good chance it gets brutal–Dennis will easily be able to raise $1 million thanks to his national followingand the Union support his protectionist/socialist views will get him.  Fisher is the LG and as such has a small amount of statewide name rec, not too mention–we assume–the governor’s support.   And on top of all of that, Space is probably the best Candidate, since he’s already won two elections in an R+6 district.

As a result of all of this, our best shot is that DeWine decides to run for Senator, gets the nomination, and then, faces the Dems’ candidate–please be Kucnich, Ohio will find him foul and spit him out–after a long brutal and expensive race.  And we have to hope, that Portman doesn’t get the nod, because if he does we get a 3rd referendum on the Bush Presidency in Ohio, and there’s no way conservatism or libertarianism can survive that.  Let’s just hope that the Primary voters pick the right consensus candidate!

Today, Israel announces another withdrawal from the Gaza…Israel killed numerous terrorists, crushed a number of opponents, and had numerous tactical victories. Strategically, Israel lost.

How you may ask, could Israel strategically lose, if they had so many tactical victories.  The answer is that, Israel didn’t win.  This is one more situation where to win, Israel had to WIN. Israel did not succeed in that capitals and bold sense, they accomplished numerous tactical objectives and immediately weakened their opponent, but as it turns out, in the long term Hamas won.  This is because in the long term, Hamas can say we survived, after the Zionist oppresssor threw all its might against us, we fledgling Hamas, survived.

Now you, the reader might say poppycock, they can claim a victory, but that does not make it so!  I disagree, whoever wins the perception in this long term game, wins the war, and as it stands that’s Hamas.  And let me showcase why I’m correct, using two examples from American history.   First and Foremost, the War of 1812, I ask you the reader did we win the War of 1812?.  In the War of 1812, the British had military control of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota; had burned the Whitehouse; and had an effective blockade of the United States.  The British, decided “screw it,” and in the ensuing Peace Treaty recognized our independence and we lost no territory.  I ask you the reader, how did we win that War?  Our stated objective when it started was to liberate Canada, and unite English Speaking North America into one great Republic.  We won two major battles, and they were relatively meaningless–Lundy’s Lane was a TKO against us and New Orleans   took place after the war ended.  So I ask you the reader how we “won” this war.  I’ll tell you now, the same way the Palestinians won the latest engagement with Israel, because they can say–as we do–that they stared the Lion in the face and it blinked before the prospect of a prolonged war.  We talk with pride about how we survived in the face of the British Lion, and I guarantee you that whatever the Hamas version of Careerbuilder is recruiting new terrorists…err Freedom Fighters…with this spin.

The second example, is Viet Nam.  We as Americans, know that we lost Viet Nam, and the Vietnamese, know that they won Viet Nam.  Based off what evidence?  The exact same, we brutalised, the NVA, never lost an engagement above the Platoon leve’, beat the “living hell” out of the Viet Cong, and yet we left, and PRNV, eventually just took over.  That is their evidence, that we blinked first.  And that is what the Palestinians will be saying, they won because Israel blinked…..

…..So as a result, Israel loses one more war, just like last summer because the requirements of victory are too high, and Israel lacks the means too accomplish them.

I am goign to apologize to everyone, in my little podcast with teh Campaign Junkie Last night I said Illinois would be one of our best picks…this was foolish on my part, mostly because I completely forgot about the Colorado race. My reason for picking Illinois still strike me as reasonably valid, but Colorado will be a much easier race for the following reasons:

1. The appointed Senator has never held Elected Office
2. The Apointed Senator has only served in Denver       
3. The GOP has a number of strong Candidates             
4. Colorado Conservatives have access to a lot of Cash
5. Colorado is a cheaper Media Market                           
6. Colorado has a higher percentage of Conservatives     

So out of shere boredom, and a “wee bit o’ demand,” I’ve decided to discuss the GOP’s 2012 Prospects, i.e. the major potential candidates for the Republican Party in the future.  I will also preface all of this with the fact that I’ve already picked my guy, who I want to run and win, and that’s Governor Huntsman, I hope you’ll see why later on, additionally I’ll try to be as unbiased as possible.

Mitt Romney–Romney had a remarkably good run for President this year, he came in second, and has established a large amount of name recognition, and some fairly favorable press in the GOP.  We all know Romney, and we know his flaws.  His biggest problem right now is that he had so much going for him in ’08 and he couldn’t seal the deal, that’s got to have people wondering about his 2012 potential.

Mike Huckabee–Mike Huckabee came out of nowhere in 2008 to win the Iowa Caucas on the backs of Socialy Conservative voters in a heavily divided primary.  On top of all of this, the Huckster’s base was pretty much the deep south and Kansas, with some brief success in W. Virginia after the Mac attack backed him there.  Huckabee could be a real candidate but he’ll have to get some success in New Hampshire if he wants to become anything except a regional guy.

Sarah Palin–Frankly, the only good thing to come out of this woman’s nomination for the Vice-Presidency was the video “Naylin’ Paylin.”  Having said that she established a large amount of loyolty in the GOP, and succesfully, drove away moderates while getting the base–especially the social-cons–all fired up and ready to go.  She’s already prepped her bid for 2012 and is possibly gearing up for a Senate bid to fill out her admittedly thin resume.  All in all, expect her to be polling high in January of 2011.  And then her numbers will begin to drop off by November as the parties base realizes that there are less polarizing candidates; that will acomplish the same thing and have a “small” chance of victory against President Obama.

Mark Sanford–Sanford is the conservative independent minded governor of South Carolina.  He has spent the last 6 years feuding with the Republican controlled state legislature.   He’s hard on border control, a popular issue with the base, and very fiscally responsible.  While socially conservative Sanford has also drawn a line in the sand when it comes to government action on those issues–he vetoed, among other things, state issued license plates with the saying “I believe”.  As a result of this Sanford is a good guy, with a propensity for showmanship, that could unite the Reagan coalition into a succesfull party organization again.

Charlie Crist–Crist is the reasonably popular governor of Florida, a key swing state and a solid Resume bullet for any prospective presidential candidate.  By 2012 he will probably be the popular two-term governor of Florida, and be seduced by national politics.   Having said all of that he’ll have some problems in any national primary, the National Review crowd dislikes him, and he’s always been more of a conservative populist than a conservative–not too mention a flip flopper on abortion.  If he runs he’ll have some advantages, and plenty of money, but he won’t be the best candidate imaginable.

New Gingrich–Former Speaker Gingrich has always had presidential ambitions, and according to Bob Novack.  Gingrich would have some advantages, he’s got a solid conservative resume, stands for the old success and principles the party abandoned long ago, and can point to a vast series of accomplishments in the ’90s–both for the party and in governance.  Furthermore, Gingrich has a base that is fired up and a national following, an ability to fundraise, and policies already lined up that he can run on.  Basically, while a Long Shot, Newt is probably one of the most realistic long shots out there.

Eric Cantor–Minority Whip Cantor’s name is being floated, and while he does stand for everything conservatives are supposed to, and was the most prolific fundraiser for McCain. Cantor would have to fight to get national name recognition–he may have a leadership post in the House, but i garauntee you out side of his Distric and DC about 100 people per state can tell you who he is.   Again though, with enough money, the GOP could have the first Jewish Nominee…..ever.  Additionally, at 45 Cantor is a young attractive Conservative who’s also an eloquent public speaker, who knows, he’ll just have to overcome the fact that in 100 years no one has gone directly from the House to the Presidency.

Bobby Jindal–Jindal is the GOP’s Obama, a young (38) Rising star in the party.  He is a complete policy wonk, brilliant, and currently, an effective governor of the only state that can go scandal for scandal with Chicago.  Jindal has said he’s not interested in running, and I believe it.  He’s up for re-election in 2011, something he desperately wants to win–and should win easily–he would than haev to immediately create a national organization in less than a year.  On top of this right now it doesn’t look like Obama will go down easily, and at 38, he can wait a year…or ten….and still be a young candidate for the Presidency.  He does, however, have one problem, there are some aspects of Jindal’s take on Catholicism that could cause some negative media attention. Put simply, if your Jindal….why take the risk?

John Huntsman Jr–Huntsman is the ridiculously popular, former ambassador, two term governor of Utah–he won half of the Democratic vote in his recent re-election bid garnering 83% of the vote.  He speaks fluent Mandarin, and has a level of family wealth that makes Mitt Romney look like me.  His record of accomplishment in Utah is real, he pushed a vouchers bill through the state legislature, introduced budget saving measures, and has kept the state in the black.  His administration has been the opposite of scandal plagued and he has made serious moves towards independence from some of the social-con talking points, be it informing social cons that creationism is not science–in Utah County no less!!!–or telling the RGA that they have to accept the fact that we’ve lost the debate on global warming and move towards offering free market solutions instead of shouting “NANANANANANA.”  In addition to all of this Huntsman has come out in support of Civil Unions, showing a very nice Libertarian streak in his policies.   All in al Huntsman provides a indepent record that is still fairly conservative, not to mention a passionate speaker, and an experienced hand, and a man who received a rating of B from the Cato Institute for his fiscal politics.

Gary Johnson–This man wants to be the next Ron paul, the former two-term Governor of New Mexico, is as libertarian as they come.  He is passionate opponent of the War on Drugs.  He serves on the board of Director’s for Students for a Sensible drug policy.  On top of this he can point to a very libertarian record of accomplishment in his time as Governor, including 750 vetos, shrinknig the employment figures by 1,000 with no lay-offs, privatizing half of the states prisons, estbalishing a school voucher program, and served both terms without a tax increase.  Frmr. Gov. Johnson has hinted at a 2012 Presidential Bid, and probably thinks he can pull in the Ron Paul money.   His continuous opposition to the Iraq war –endorsement of Paul in the Primaries–might be enough to bring some of Paul’s supporters to him, either way if he runs….well it’ll be entertaining.

Tim Pawlenty–Pawlenty is the popular GOP governor of Blue Minnesota.  He was considered the “runner-up” for the VP nod (whatever that is), and had some fun flirting on the national scene.  Having said that his “Sam’s Club” republicanism strikes me more and more of the ilk that Huckabee proposes, moderate on fical issues, and conservative on social issues.  In addition, Pawlenty will get mauled by the NRO, and Weekly Standard crowd, which merged with his prediliction for new government programs as Governor-he has kept his promise of “no new taxes” by raising state fees, and supporting a high sales tax to subsidize private interest (read Twin’s Stadium).  In addition his love of Ethanol will really help him out in Iowa, even if it disgusts me.   All in all, Pawlenty might be a succesful candidate, but i hope not, he wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to the party but neither would he be good.

Mike Pence–Congressman Pence was just elected to be the Republican Conference Chairman.  This makes him the 3rd ranking Republican Congressman.   Pence has developed a bit of a national following, especially over his opposition to the bail-out.  Furthermore, Pence is a rising congressional leader.  While many people, including myself, would love to see Congressman Pence run, and would wholeheartadly suppor the conservative Udall, his odds are worse than Cantor’s, Pence has less money, less name recognition, and is considered quircky by centrists and the press.  As a result of this Pence is highly unlikely to run.

All in all, as it stands right now I’m backing Governor Huntsman because of his record of accomplishment, independent thought, and elctibility.  After Huntsman it goes, Sanford, Gingrich, Jindal, Cantor, Crist, Romney, Tom Coburn, Bill Richardson, Tom Ridge, Gary Johnson, Mark Warner, Obama, Jerry Brown, George H.W. Bush, Barry Goldwater, Mike Huckabee, Hillary Clinton, and then Sarah Palin.

Don’t worry loyal readers tonight your hero, alright someone you read regularly online made a guest appearance on the podcast of The Campaign Junkie.  Enjoy.

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/22733

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Missouri—With Kit Bond’s retirement this seat is going to be a major race to watch. The democrats have a superior candidate in Robin Carnahan, the daughter of a Governor and a Senator, and the current secretary of state. The Republicans best candidate is Rep. Blunt, the former Minority Whip of the House GOP. Failing that we will be dependent on former SoT Sarah Steelman. Rating: Coin Flip

Kansas—even with Brownback’s retirement the only way that the Dems might be able to pick this seat up is if Sebelius runs for the seat. KS, however, is a state where we have a deep bench, especially if you include Kansas’s Congressional Delegation, and Brownback’s personal desire to be Governor. And with Rep Moran running, the GOP will pretty much hold the seat. Rating: Vodka Safe

Florida—this seat is going to be absolutely insane. Florida is a huge swing state at every single level. And with Jeb not running, this state has gone from an easy GOP win to a major fight, both parties have solid benches, ranging from state officials—Charlie Crist don’t screw us—to the very large congressional delegation. The GOP could run one of two former Speakers of the State House: Marco Rubio and Allan Bense. Rating Coin Flip

Alabama—If anyone wants to bet against Shelby please please call me I’ll bet my life savings on his ability to win, his re-election committee has $13 million, and he’s had that seat 4 24 years, ie longer that I’ve been alive! Rating: Inouye Safe

Alaska—The GOP will hold this seat, the only person who could lose is Lisa Murkowski if Sarah Palin runs for the US Senate. Rating: GOP safe Murkowski endangered.

Arizona—John McCain has already announced he’ll run for re-election, current polling says that if Napolitino runs he’s in for a hell of a race. Fortunately for him she’s Obama’s SHHS, meaning that if will be difficult for her to run for his Senate Seat. On the other hand, it’s still a possibility. Assuming that she doesn’t run, however, the Dems still have a fairly deep bench. Anne Kilpatrick, Gabriel Giffords, and Harry Mitchel are all viable candidates. All 1^st, 2^nd, or 3^rd term congressmen, so they really have nothing to lose by making this bid, and the DCCC has already kicked fundraising into high gear, so even without Napolitino this race should be competitive. Having said all of that McCain has been reelected four times statewide, and should be able to get some serious bank. Rating: Slightly Republican.

Georgia—Johnny Isaacson has been elected to the Senate once, with 58% of the vote. Considering that it’s Georgia, and that the only two candidates that people have polled on this race have Isaacson up by at least 10 points. Rating: Heavily Leaning Republican

Idaho—Crapo got re-elected with 99% of the vote in 2010, even if the best Democratic Candidate runs, Crap will probably get re-elected to a 4^th term. Rating: Inouye Safe

Iowa—Unless Grassley retires he wins, he’s never lost, and well Iowans love Grassley.

Kentucky—Bunning will lose he’s senile, old, stupid, and barely won in 2004 when Bush carried the state by 20 points, and frankly the Senates better off without this great baseball man. Rating: Likely Dem

Louisiana—Vitter might lose to Landrieu—the Leuitenant-Governor, not the Senator who is his sister. Other than there is no real challenger to Vitter. Having Said that if Governor Jindal makes a bid he’ll win no problem, this isn’t an issue though as he likes being Governor. Throw in the fact that Vitter’s problem is sex, and that Louisiana has gotten more Republican over the past 4 years, so he’s probably kosher. Rating: Leans Republican.

New Hampshire—Judd Gregg has been re-elected five times state wide, and served as a representative covering half of New Hampshire 4 times. As a Result of all of this, he would normally be a shoo-in. Unfortunately for him, he represents New Hampshire, and both Reps are considering challenging him in 2010, not to mention if John Lynch gets involved. Either way this is going to be a doozy of a race, and we’re going to have to wait and see what the numbers are at in a year or so. As it stands now, I’d say it’s a complete toss-up even leaning Democrat. Rating Pocket 2s against AK

North Carolina—Burr was elected in 2004 when North Carolina went huge for Bush, this is a cursed seat where you only get it for one term. If Easley runs it probably goes Democrat right now Heat Schuler will probably run. Put simply this is going to be a close race, end of story. My money would go to Burr, but you never know. Rating: Leans GOP

Ohio—Voinovich is a two term senator, two term governor, and former 3 term mayor of Cleveland. His approval rating right now stands at a plus 5. For the dems to get rid of the moderate Voinovich they’re going to need to run one hell of race. This is going to depend on who wins the Democratic Primary, how many contestants there are, and exactly how brutal the primary gets. As a result of Voinovich’s personal popularity and history with the electorate I’m leaning towards him. Rating: Likely GOP

Oklahoma—Inouye Safe

Pennsylvania—Specter will get challenged from the right. If he beats back the challenge he’s pretty much guaranteed a 6^th term. The only statewide official who could beat specter is Governor Rendell, a man who doesn’t seem to have any desire to become a legislator. Rating: Leans GOP

South Carolina—Inouye Safe

South Dakota—Thune is probably really safe he’s been re-elected statewide 4 times, and beat Daschle in ’04. As a result of this I’d be shocked to see him go down. Rating: Likely GOP

Utah—Rating: Vodka Safe!

So I’ve been gone for awhile, and i was walking home from my new temp job….ewww call center.  But this same job just gave me a new topic to post, and it is the Israeli assault on Gaza.  This topic sprung to my mind not from the countless hours that CNN has given it, nor the Neo-Con/pro-Israel response, but watching a pro-Gaza March in downtown Chicago…I do have to say this much, WTF do Cuba and Venezuela have to do with Palestine?  I mean i know that they give those cute little s peaches in the GA, but they’re meaningless really.

To get back to the primary point, however, we must support Israel.  This is not because Israel is a beacon of democracy in a state of maniacal terrorism, nor is it because Israel is a loyal friend who would never hinder the United States–really, it’s not.  It is instead because we need our Luca Brasi.  We need someone who will be the bad boy on the block and do the things we must but don’t because of public opinion.  Israel does this for us: see there 1981 Bombing of the Osirak Reactor.  As a result we must allow for our thugs brutal tendencies, they may not be fun to watch on the TV, but it is these very same brutal tendencies that we need in our Luca Brasi.  We need a partner to do horrible things that is not squeamish where we faint, we need someone who does not hesitate to brutalize and bomb, so that we don’t have to.  As a result, we must except this quirky tendency of our ally, and the occasional embarrassment that we get, to ensure that “some guys get takin’ for a walk.”

Now some would respond that Israel’s policies brutally violate human rights.  I agree, if based on the morality of an individaul, Israel’s acts or hirribly reprehensible.  But I stand with Niebuhr, and we cannot judge a state based on the ethics of the individual, because its needs and responsibilities are greater .  As a result, while Israel’s actions are regrettable and even reprehensible, we cannot allow them to drive us from our neccessary friend.

With the Election over and all eyes gearing towards 2012 I figure that I will shout out “HEY SLOW-DOWN” the midterms still have to happen!!!! As a result I’m going to provide a state by state analysis of all of the Senate Seats up for grabs, I’m going to preface this with the simple statement that these predictions are two years out, and everything i say may be invalid in 2 months!

Democratic Seats

• Delaware–Okay so, basically unless Mike Castle runs, and Beau Biden fails to adopt my recomended campaign slogan–Get mo’ Biden with Beau Biden–and thus loses the Democratic Primary, we might…just barely, have a shot at this rate but, as none of that will happen, this seat will go to Current Delaware Attorny General Beau Biden. Rating: Dem SAFE!!!!
• Colorado–Ken Salazar will probably be Obama’s Secretary of the Interior, this means that this seat in a very swingy state will be wide open with a number of viable Republican Candidates, and an equal number–if not more–of Democratic Candidates.  Possible Republican Candidates include Frmr. Rep. Tancredo–don’t worry though, they’ve already run polls and he is getting crushed–as well as former Football star and unwitting tool of Satan–I’ll preface the last statement with the fact that I’m a browns fan–John Elway.   Mike Coffman is another potential Candidate–though I would say unlikely–he recently was elected to the House formerly held by Tom Tancredo. However, the best hope for the Republicans is Frmr. Republican Governor Bill Owens, who has already won two statewide races and is ridiculously popular in Colorado. The Democrats, also have a number of serious candidates, including Current Governor  Bill Ritter–who could theoretically appoint himself–as well as Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper–though his name might sound tooo funny!–and Former US Attorney Tom Strickland, as well as Ougoing Speaker of the State House Andrew Romanoff.  All in all this race will be a doosey for what is effectively an open seat in a swing state, and we will have no idea what is going to happen until we see who Ritter appoints.   And then of course there is Congressman Salazar, who thanks to his brother, has high name recognition, and is a solid moderate–in 2005 the Executive Director of the NRA stumped for him–needless to say, he’d be a good candidate!  Rating: TOTAL TOSS-UP!!!
• Arkansas–Unless Mike Huckabee runs this seat will stay Democratic, and he’s already started gearing up for his 2012 Presidential Bid so don’t expect him to be that Loyol to the Party….Nuff Said. Rating: Safer than a Bottle of Vodka Around me.

• California–Okay….If the Guvernator Runs, and Obama’s numbers are in the hole…maybe! An October of 2007 Poll Had Arnie up–w/in the margin of error–but this is California, Boxer has been in that seat forever, and Arnie’s numbers are not what they once were.  Having said all of that, this guy is a self-made millionaire/actor-turned Governor, and has bounced back from low approval ratings before–read 2005 to his 2006 Reelection.  Pretty much no other candidate can beat boxer–Sorry Hunter Fans!!! Rating–Leans a big way towards the Dems…but maybe!
• Connecticut–Okay, let’s be honest hear this is Connectict, one Republican might–MAYBE–be able to take down Dodd, and that’s Rell, who would have to give up a Governor’s seat and pray to god she gets luck, and that Obama is also caught in a corruption scandal. Rating: Likely Dem
• Hawaii–Inouye will not lose, so unless he dies this seat doesn’t change. Rating: Remember that bottle of Vodka well this seat is even Safer
• Illinois–Okay, so if Duckworth Get’s appointed the Dem’s win, if jackson Get’s apointed and a solid moderate like Kirk runs, i say the GOP has about a 50-50 shot, maybe less.  Either way until we know who gets apointed, since the State Legislature vetoed a special Election, we have no idea who will win this seat.  Rating: Either a Democratic Safe or a Coin Flip
• Indiana–Evan Bayh has been elected five times statewide, twice as Governor, Twice as a US Senator, and once as the Secretary of State, he’s a hardcore DLC democrat who has recieved praise from the WSJ, Furthermore his daddy held that seat for quite some time.  Put simply, no one touches Bayh. Rating:  Almost Inouye Safe
• Maryland–This Seat is staying Democratic…..just let’s not get into it.  Rating: Inouye Safe
• Nevada–No one likes Reid, but even less people like Gibbons, and the Best Candidate to take Reid out in the Congressional Delegation lost reelection this year, the only Congressional Republican to win is Dean Healer who represents Northern Nevada, and the most republican 1/3 of the state.  Fortunately, Brian Krolicki is “seriously considering” a Senate Run, which would be nice if he hadn’t just been indicted on four felony corruption charges! As a result, the best Anti-Reid Candidate is 72 year old former Governor–and RINO extroadinaire– Kenny Guin.  Or a defeated Congressman could launch a Senate Bid–are odds could be worse, but not much.  So thanks to the 2008 Elections,  plus what I imagine is a monster warchest, Reid will probably survive the midterms, though maybe not, weirder things have happened.  Rating: Leans Dem–he still has a -10% approval rating
• New York–Seriously, who knows.  Caroline Kennedy could possibly be the worst Campaigner ever, we don’t know she’s never really entered the public sphere.  Plus Patterson could appoint someone else.  And we don’t even know who the GOP candidate is–maybe Giulliani?–really we just don’t have enough information, having said all of that it’s still New York, and unless lightning strikes…yeah.  Rating: Likely democrat.
• New York–Chuck Schumer is also up for re-election, but that guy is Vodka+Inouye Safe. Rating: Vodka+Inouye Safe
• North Dakota–It always seems like we should be able to win this seat because, I mean it’s North Dakota.  But we can’t, and we won’t.  Rating: Probably Dem.
• Oregon–Vodka+Inouye Safe…seriously, we can’t win this seat he’s wildly popular. 
• Vermont–I’m just goin going to direct you to my comments on Inouye……
• Washington–Pat Murray will probably be re-elected…she’s a three-term senator from a blue state, and has never been re-elected with less than 54% of the vote. Rating: Safe Dem
• Wisconsin–Russ Feingold won a 2004 Re-election when we threw everything we had at him…he’s safe…he’s just safe, unless maybe Paul Ryan doesn’t run for governor, and is ridiculously skilful as a campaigner! Rating: Safe Dem